Our planet has never been as close to a possible nuclear conflict between NATO and Russia as it is today. This is the most alarming outcome of the war in Ukraine, as many experts are warning (see the annual report of the Stockholm Institute for Peace Research (SIPRI)). Virtually almost all agreements on nuclear deterrence between the U.S. and Russia have been suspended. The US and Russia possess 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons stockpile.
This was the issue of the conference in the building of the Paris Business School: “Nuclear Apocalypse: how Europe can avoid a war between Russia and NATO”.
The conference was opened by the prominent Vatican representative Msgr. Vittorio Formenti who raised his voice against the threat of nuclear war and the continuing human suffering in Ukraine. At the beginning he told the audience about the value of peace: “The current conflict between Ukraine and Russia reminds me of a trip I took to Japan, where I had the opportunity to visit the “Museum of Horrors”, located in Hiroshima at the exact site where the first atomic bomb was detonated. The subsequent bombing of Nagasaki effectively ended World War II, which left behind the wreckage of immense destruction: homes, museums, cathedrals, economic structures, and a total of sixty-six million victims, both military and civilian. During my visit to that museum, I had the chance to browse through an album that contained the autographs of its notable visitors. I found one from Pope John Paul II, dated February 1981, preceded by a Latin phrase, “Ego cogito cogitationes pacis, et non afflictionis, dicit Dominus”, which translates to “I think thoughts of peace, and not of affliction, says the Lord””.
He called for all the sides of the conflict to realize the magnitude of the nuclear threat and to turn to diplomacy, following all previous call of Vatican for a ceasefire: “Let the weapons cease, then, to allow for a truce that provides relief and tranquility to the exhausted populations, initiating a diplomatic process to seek a path to peace through a mutually acceptable compromise between the parties, without the humiliation of one side or the other”. Monsignor Formenti concluded with the message of wisdom: “I recall then only a few addresses from the Popes who, since the eve of World War I (1914-1918), with St. Pius X and then his successor Benedict XV, repeatedly, though in vain, made appeals for peace not only to believers but to all people of goodwill. ‘Everything can be lost with war,’ they said, ‘while everything can be gained with peace.’ Most recently, the current Pope Francis has made hundreds of appeals for peace, reminding us that wars have never, ever solved the problems between warring parties; rather, they have multiplied them, while also making futile appeals to the powerful arms manufacturing lobbies. Those aspiring to power in nations that stockpile lethal weapons capable of literally destroying the entire world may not know the scene from the film with Charlie Chaplin, who plays with a large globe until he ends up causing it to explode in his hands”.
This was followed by a well-known American economist Jeffrey Sachs. He accused the US and the West of provoking the conflict in Ukraine by their actions to attract Ukraine to NATO. “The reckless desire to get Ukraine to join NATO was the main reason for this war. They wanted to weaken Russia, but they achieved the opposite. We see how the West failed when we analyze the importance of the current BRICS conference”. Sachs pointed out that the conflict should be resolved through direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington.
The American economist pointed out that further escalation of the conflict could lead to a nuclear confrontation. “The senseless continuation of war could lead to a nuclear catastrophe that none of us want.” He also mentioned the detrimental economic effects of the war.
We are talking about colossal funds that will be withdrawn from the EU budget. The news agency “Bloomberg Economics” has estimated that the EU will spend 10 trillion dollars on defense in the next 10 years. These funds will be taken out of the pockets of taxpayers, which will lead to the degradation of social infrastructure, deteriorate the system of medical care and make Europeans much poorer. According to calculations by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) global spending on nuclear weapons in 2023 increased by 13% to a record $91, 4 billion dollars.
Sachs referred specifically to the intention to deploy in 2026 in Germany hundreds of cruise missile which have a potential of nuclear warheads carriers. We had already a such a crisis in Europe from 1983 until December 1987 when the INF Treaty was signed at a summit meeting between U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. And this is the right way to solution for the current situation.
The next alarming message came from the human rights champion Manel Msalmi, President of the European Association for the Defense of Minorities /Researcher in the American university in Paris. She stated: “Russia started this war. However, we are now discussing the conflict two and a half years after the war started. Our goal is to avoid escalation of the war and to avoid a nuclear catastrophe and its impact on women and children as well as the future generations”.
Then she addressed directly the recent political developments: “Some recent statements by the Ukrainian president Zelensky seem emotional and conducive to escalation. It appears that his last statements can be interpreted as an invitation to the United States and NATO into a direct military conflict without trying diplomatic solutions. He even delivered at ultimatum to NATO, warning that his country may pursue nuclear weapons if it is not granted membership in the alliance.
She also emphasized: “Zelensky is trying to convince Washington and Brussels that after Ukraine, Russia will move its tanks on the Baltic states and Europe. This idea is weakly supported by the real facts, which show that the front line has been frozen for almost two years now, with only minor changes. If Russia cannot achieve a turning point on the Ukrainian fronts, how can we expect it to make a dash for Berlin and Paris. NATO generals’ assessments of the prospects for war in Ukraine are much closer to reality than Zelensky’s plans”.
She reminded: “In the meantime, voices calling for peace and ceasefire agreement were prominent and present in BRICS summit on October 22nd-24th including PM Modi whohas declaored: «We have been in constant touch on the subject of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we believe that problems should be resolved only through peaceful means. We fully support the early restoration of peace and stability. All our efforts give priority to humanity. India is ready to provide all possible support in the times to come.” The UAE and KSA as well were praised for their mediation efforts. «We are ready to make any efforts to resolve crises and in the interests of peace, in the interests of both sides,” said Sheikh Mohammed . BRICS summit seems to be full of calls for peace to end war in Ukraine and most of world leaders would like to avoid escalation and nuclear threat.
Leading French political scientist and writer Gerard Chaliand, the winner of the 2024 PUFF Geopolitical Book Prize, supported the view of Jeffrey Sachs on the origins of the conflict. He strongly criticized the current European leadership for following blindly the US strategy since WW2. Mr. Chaliand has also expressed deep concern about the continuation of the war which causes devastation to the whole European continent. The peace solution there is inevitable and imminent, in his opinion.
His colleague from the prominent Le Monde newspaper Gaidz Minassian had a different view on the origins of the conflict.
He suggested for different ways of solving it having agreed on the need to stop it by diplomatic means.
The conference was chaired by Frederic Encel, professor of the Paris Business School and leading commentator on French television. He referred especially to the US elections and predicted that Trump’s victory could cause a major shift in the US policies towards the conflict. As all other speakers he urged for diplomacy and peace solution.